Comparison of Athletic Performances across Disciplines

Barnes, C.

The extreme value (EV) distribution describes the asymptotic behaviour of all stationary distributions in terms of a limiting, three parameter distribution function. This result can be used to compare elite sport performances for several purposes. 1. By regressing out most significant fixed and random effects for a given discipline, gender and class combination, the resulting residuals can be fitted to an EV distribution to determine the optimised parameters describing gender/discipline/class combinations and their uncertainties. This allows the objective ranking of athletes across events in terms of their percentiles. 2. Use of the regression models allows objective estimates of likely future event standards for performances in heats, semis and finals placings. 3. Determinations of distributional parameters allow comparison between gender, class (including able bodied or AWD performances) and disciplines via percentiles. 4. Deviations in the regression parameters may indicate the varying effects of performance enhancement over the time-span of Olympic cycles.

Cite as: Barnes, C. (2014). Comparison of Athletic Performances across Disciplines. In Proc. Twelfth Australasian Data Mining Conference (AusDM14) Brisbane, Australia. CRPIT, 158. Li, X., Liu, L., Ong, K.L. and Zhao, Y. Eds., ACS. 131-139

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